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Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property market & hedge fund advisory.
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Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
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Friday, 4 April 2014
Recession or recovery?
Just having a plough through the Reserve Bank's chart pack.
The case for an Australian recession is centred around two concepts:
(1) a material slowdown in China, and (2) the below chart, which suggests that mining construction has now passed its peak and could easily tumble by a quarter in rapid time.
Listening to the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speak this week, though, he remains upbeat about Australia's prospects.
The case is steadily building that low interest rates are now generating enough traction.
The evidence is mounting up:
This all points to a pretty good GDP result for the first quarter of the year.
And all the while, Australia is ramping up its mining exports at a tremendous pace.
The reliance on China as our export destination and the terms of trade continuing to support export values continues to increase.