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Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyers & WargentAdvisory (subscription market analysis for institutional clients).
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Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
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"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
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Friday, 4 April 2014
Recession or recovery?
Just having a plough through the Reserve Bank's chart pack.
The case for an Australian recession is centred around two concepts:
(1) a material slowdown in China, and (2) the below chart, which suggests that mining construction has now passed its peak and could easily tumble by a quarter in rapid time.
Listening to the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speak this week, though, he remains upbeat about Australia's prospects.
The case is steadily building that low interest rates are now generating enough traction.
The evidence is mounting up:
This all points to a pretty good GDP result for the first quarter of the year.
And all the while, Australia is ramping up its mining exports at a tremendous pace.
The reliance on China as our export destination and the terms of trade continuing to support export values continues to increase.