One of the favourite guessing games of economists: what happens next to interest rates and when?
Instead of adding to the guesswork today, I'll merely take a quick look at where Aussie interest rates have come from, and where, on balance, futures market think they might go to next (and why).
If you've been watching what has happened to the Aussie dollar of late - all the way back up from below 88 US cents in February to above 93.6 cents today - and to various bits and pieces of economic data over the last few weeks, you may get the impression that things are steadily looking up for the Australian economy.
With a cash rate of 2.50%, our cash rate is still comparatively high, though, when compared to the US (which is still pumping stimulus into its economy), the Eurozone (where deflation is feared) or the UK where the base rate has been stuck at 0.50% for five years.
Japan hasn't had a benchmark interest rate above 1.00% since 1995 (click chart)!
Interest rates being stuck at zero tends to be a sign of a sick economy.
September 2014 contracts, for example, have an implied yield of 2.49%, which is just one solitary basis point lower than the cash rate.
Watch this space.