Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 5 April 2014

No private sector growth in Western Sydney

I have always believed that inner suburbs make for better investment choices than outer suburbs from a property investment perspective.

It's simple: more people want to live close to the city, yet simple geometry tells you that there is far less land available to build on.

Others argue you should invest in distant outer suburbs or in the regions since it's cheaper, using vague anecdotal tales of people upping sticks for an easier life in the country.

That's not at all what the immigration figures tell is happening. 

Rather, the overwhelming majority of immigrants are flocking to Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and South-East Queensland.

Since I always caution against the dangers of confirmation bias, don't take my word for it, look at what the statistics tell us about what is coming in the future (i.e. worse traffic, diabolical commute times and increasing pressure on inner suburb property prices).

SMH today:

"Western Sydney has been adding jobs at just one-third of the rate of the rest of the city, increasing the pressure on workers to travel out of the region.

Employment in western Sydney grew by an average of only 0.5 per cent over the past five years compared with an average of 1.6 per cent in the rest of the city, analysis by SGS Economics & Planning shows.

An SGS economist, Terry Rawnsley, said employment in western Sydney would have contracted in that period if not for the health and education sectors.

''Without these two mostly government-funded industries, employment in western Sydney would have fallen over the past five years by 0.1 per cent per year,'' he said.

''This highlights how difficult it is to grow private sector jobs in the region.''

A lack of readily available jobs has been linked to low rates of female workforce participation in western Sydney. A recent Grattan Institute report said women with children in western Sydney may be unable to work because the only jobs available required a long commute."

If you live in Sydney, you don't need the stats to tell you this, you can see it happening with your own eyes.

"More than a third of workers in western Sydney leave the region for work and the western Sydney director of the Sydney Business Chamber, David Borger, said long commuting times were taking a toll on families.

''People are travelling up to three hours a day to get to work and that can have a catastrophic impact on family life and community life,'' he said.

''The real challenge is that figure is likely to grow because the population of western Sydney is double from 2 [million] to 4 million by 2061.''

A second article in the SMH today highlighted how dangerous commuting on Sydney's ever more congested roads is becoming.