Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Thursday, 3 April 2014

Nice

Retail trade, an important indicator of economic activity, continued to grow in February (by +0.7% in trend terms or +0.2% seasonally adjusted) even after an outsized result in January (+1.2%) and strong growth in the preceding months (November 2013 and December 2013 also both recorded strong 0.7% seasonally adjusted gains).


Graph: Monthly Turnover, Current Prices, Trend Estimate

Source: ABS

Year on year retail growth is tracking nicely at 4.9% growth, but actually since low interest rates really started to bite around Q3 last year, the annualised pace of growth is around 9%, which will contribute to a nice GDP figure in the first quarter of this year.

Meanwhile today's international trade figures showed that exports continue to surge, up by 11% in February alone.

Rebalancing

It's perhaps worthwhile putting all this into some context.

The whole point of what is supposed to be happening in the economy at the moment is that the RBA should be rebalancing Australia away from mining construction (the building of resources projects) to residential property construction, with low interest rates helping the rest of the economy to take up the slack while the mining projects move into the construction phase.

Today's retail data and yesterday's building approvals data showed that Australia is making progress in that direction.

And all the while, exports are picking up...and how.

Bulk Commodity Exports graph