Been blinkin' busy of late, and this morning I was appalled to discover that according to my calendar it's already end of the month!
I also explained in the same article why I'm not a big believer in property price forecasts...particularly those which claim to forecast to one decimal place!
Anyone who tells you that they have a model to predict prices to that level of accuracy is either (a) lying or (b) delusional.
It doesn't matter what econometric model you choose to build, eventually it will blow up due to an unforeseen X factor.
All you can really do is start with borrowing rates, household debt levels, market sentiment and fundamentals, economic and employment forecasts etc. and then build a base case from there.
But think of all the unpredictable events we've seen in recent years - the US sequester and fiscal cliff, the US debt ceiling crisis, Cyprus debt crisis, changes in monetary and fiscal policy...you just can't predict and factor in all that stuff.
So you either make a forecasts with a huge range (e.g. 12% to 30% growth in 2014) or you make a weighted average forecast, accept you'll probably be wrong and risk ending up looking like a total doofus (e.g. our own 6% to 9% in 2014 for Sydney).
As to whether or not Sydney overshoots the top of our expectations? Well, we're only a third of the way through the year, and that remains to be seen.
This all rather contrary to my investment philosophy in any case, which is that property should be seen as a 20-30 year investment decision, and ideally much longer still.
If you're banking on market price movements within a few years, then you're probably in the wrong game.
You'll note from the same article that we were generally less optimistic than almost everyone else about property prices in 2014, since we felt that houeshold debt levels were generally too high and annualised wages growth tracking too low to facilitate anything like the levels of nationwide dwelling price growth we've seen in cycles past.
Anyways, back to RP Data's figures.
Some signs of life in Adelaide at last too! - although year-on-year the South Australian capital has still been the worst performing major capital city by a wide margin.
Still, prices have under-performed in Adelaide for so many years that some level of catch-up at last now appears due.