Two people getting together to discuss investment strategy both on $49 Nokias: a coincidence? I think not.
In fact, the first words on Thornhill's slides when he presents are:
With all four of the major banks getting rolled on the stock market today by around 1.0% to 1.75% at the time of writing, it occurred to me that it might a good time to review the past year's performance.
My goodness, is it really a full 12 months since commentators called a bank stock bubble in Australia and began advising all manner of short positions?
Let's start with the biggest of all of our big banks: CommBank (click chart):
OK, that was CBA.
How about ANZ? (click chart):
Next up, Westpac (click chart):
But the really exciting thing here has been the massive ramp-up in Westpac's fully franked dividends to $0.96 and $0.98 in May and November respectively.
To put that in some kind of context, in 1997 Westpac was churning out dividends of around 20 cents.
What a result for long term holders that is!
And finally, National Australia Bank (NAB) - (click chart):
Also strong from the NAB.
PE has increased to around 14 and the market cap about $85,000m.
More interestingly, 100% fully franked dividends of $0.93 and $0.97 were once again delivered in May and November, so the share price appreciation has once again merely been the icing on the cake.
And the "bank stock bubble" is a fine case in point.
Most of us are better off with a long-term strategy to own great companies than speculate or trade them.
Even the pros are frequently hopeless at timing the market, so what makes us think we'll do any better?