Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Sunday, 9 March 2014

Weekend news

Only one problem with weekends - not much data to report!

Fear not, for next week we have some huge releases, including (among other releases on lending finance, trade, and overseas arrivals/departures) the ABS Housing Finance data on Thursday followed by the all-important Labour Force figures for February on Friday.

The RBA's Phillip Lowe will also undertake a speech on demographics, productivity and innovation (not everyone's cup of tea, granted!).

And, more interestingly, we'll start the week by seeing how share markets plan to respond to a sharp drop in certain commodity prices, and I'll kick off tomorrow with a detailed and in-depth look at the long-awaited supply response in Sydney's extremely tight housing market.

Instead of the usual platitudes, I'm going to try to make an estimation of when apartments will start to hit the market in droves and where. 

In the meantime, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures April 2014 contracts last traded at 97.510, which some mental gymnastics should tell you that the expectation of an interest rate decrease to 2.25% at the next RBA Board meeting on April 1 is deemed by markets to  be extremely unlikely 

That's around a 1-in 25-chance.

In fac, thanks to stronger GDP, inflation, commodity exports, housing finance, house prices, building approvals,company earnings, share prices, business conditions and retail trade data the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures Yield Curve has almost - almost! - priced out no further dips.

The one key missing element is better employment data.


Source: ASX

As for dwelling prices, RP Data's Daily Home Value Index shows Sydney to be leading the way over the past year, and Melbourne notching a quite extraordinary couple of months.

Meanwhile Adelaide and Brisbane are fighting valiantly to recover the previous home values they reached in 2010.

Perth appears to have plateaued.

Back tomorrow with details on Sydney housing supply...


Source: RP Data

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This weekend's movie at Broadway was Dallas Buyers Club starring Matthew McConaughey. 

Great to watch a film about a different subject rather than the usual formulaic stuff. 

Really excellent and 8.5/10 for me (realised that ranking out of 5 doesn't leave much scope for variation, so out of 10 it is...).