Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 31 March 2014

Property prices keep rising in March


Someone asked me last week if I am "bullish on property?".

It's a bit of wild concept if you think about it.

At the last count there are around 9,300,700 dwellings in Australia, and the vast majority of them I wouldn't invest in.

There are a huge number of areas that I would consider to be extremely risky, in fact, including a whole range of mining towns and regional centres, and even some larger cities with weak population growth and job markets.

My position always been that if you can demonstrate a certain level of skill and invest in the right suburbs and property types you can make a lot of money, but I wouldn't say that makes me bullish on housing per se.

In Britain, London and its surrounds has been the only area worthy of investing for my money over all the years.

In Australia, I generally stick to certain suburbs in Sydney. 

In 2007, that meant a number of key suburbs in the inner west, and even then only certain types of property. 

Last year we were buying on the lower north shore, but again only in a handful of suburbs and certain types of property. 

At the weekend, the lower north recorded another blistering auction clearance rate of 92%. 

I wouldn't get too bogged down in the weekly conspiracy theories about under-reporting: just look at the actual results reported in suburbs like Kirribilli, Wollstonecraft, Cremorne and Neutral Bay. 

The lower north shore is now absolutely flying!

We expect to see Milsons Point and Waverton outperforming in 2014 too.

We try to avoid buying in heated markets, however, so we may leave the hordes to the auction frenzies at ever-higher prices now, and look elsewhere.

Next on our hit-list will include three suburbs in particular to the west and south-west, a little further out than the traditional capital growth hotspots, in order to catch the ripple effect of capital growth which is repeated in most property market cycles. 

March property prices

Later this week, RP Data will release its property price results for the month of March, which unsurprisingly will continue to report very strong gains in Australian capital cities (+2.3%) for the 10th month in a row.

Leading the way, of course, were Sydney (+2.8%) and Melbourne (+2.3%), although in fact gains were recorded everywhere in March.

Over the past 12 months, the best performing capital city has continued to be Sydney, and the worst, perhaps not surprisingly given its weak jobs market and low population growth, Adelaide (click chart).