Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Wednesday, 26 March 2014

March 2014: the biggest month Australian property history?

Goodness, a bold question indeed for a Wednesday arvo.

Whether or not there is any, erm, value, in the concept of daily property values, RP Data's Daily Home Value Index undeniably creates a great deal of opportunity for nerds to play around with charts, and I, for one, am grateful for that.

Until just a couple of days ago the RP Data index was showing national property price gains for March of a staggering 2.3% which, if it were to be sustained, would represent the greatest monthly gain on record for RP Data in Australian capital cities, representing further validation that monetary policy works on dwelling prices.

Over the past year, the home values by city, have increased by 10.51% (click chart).


This is probably easier to see in a bar chart of year-on-year price growth by city (click chart).


Brisbane and Adelaide are now showing some gains in 2014 but, perhaps unsurprisingly, it is Sydney and Melbourne that are really driving values higher.

From what I've heard from Queenslanders who are in the market it appears likely that Brisbane will begin to show some decent gains in the near future.

For 2014 year to date, Sydney prices are up by 3.74% and up by 2.13% in March so far alone.


Meanwhile Melbourne's chart finally seems to have moderated a little, but even so, prices are up by an outlandish 5.67% in 2014 and are still up by some 2.54% in the month of March so far.


Viewpoint?

Is this all important?

Well, I'm not a huge believer in the idea of daily home values due to the obvious limitations on capturing and processing data, but these figures are certainly important in one sense.

If nothing else, the headlines that record or near-record monthly price gains will  doubtless generate and which will be reported next week can themselves fuel a herd mentality.

Moreover, history has shown that where asset markets get away from central banks they can take on something of a life of their own.

The Reserve Bank will be watching all this with great care, of course.

Indeed, the RBA talked a lot about housing today, it's confidence instrumental in sending the dollar all the way up to a 4 month high of 92 cents.

I'll cover off why they seem so relaxed tomorrow, but I think that we can reasonably expect there to be more talk of macro-prudential measures to cool speculation in the market in the absence of actual interest rate hikes in the near future.

Also tomorrow, the ABS releases its demographic statistics for the September 2013 quarter.

Never a dull moment!