Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Monday, 3 March 2014

Dymocks spruikfest

Completely and utterly hosing it down again in Sydney today, for the second day running.

Not that I ever need an excuse to pop my head into Dymocks and spend half an hour reading books - with no absolutely intention of paying for them, of course, - but since I had no umbrella, I thought stick my beak in and take a look.

Dymocks is one of the long-established companies in Australia which still benefits from the old grandfathering rules of disclosure and compliance.

These companies are absolutely best clients you can get as an auditor since the grandfathering rules allow an exemption from filing accounts, which means much less disclosure work (although best practice suggests that appropriate governance rules are still followed).

Because of that, it's never clear to outsiders just how the Dymocks business is really tracking, although the word is that with a turnover of $200 million plus, Dymocks is one of the few bookstore chains which has continued to thrive, while private-equity owned chain Borders has long since closed its last store. 

I mentioned in a previous post, that I'm constantly on the lookout for indicators on consumer sentiment.

I've certainly noted that consumers are out and about spending a lot more in Sydney than they were a year ago.

How's the below for an counter-contrarian indicator of sentiment?

Back in 2011 Harry Dent's book The Great Depression Ahead was flying off the shelves, since there was a fairly widely held view in Australia that our share and property markets were going to crash.

Thanks to Dymocks' nifty new customer-friendly stock system, I can report that there are still 53 remaining copies (from around 80) of Dent's latest book in Dymocks on George Street.

After a little spurt a month ago, sales have all but stalled.

By way, of comparison there are only 5 copies of my book remaining after Dymocks have already re-stocked it once, albeit my book has been on sale quite a lot longer than Dent's has.


There's a fairly clear inference, I think, which is that while people might have bought into Dent's 50-55% property crash and the Dow crashing from 12,000 to 3,500 claim once (the Dow actually zoomed up to above 16,320 today), they aren't so keen to do so again.

On the flip side, my first book highlighted that due to low vacancy rates and very rapidly growing demand there was a great potential for Sydney's inner suburbs to take off (they have).

I also noted that strong dividend-rich shares and diversified products in the UK and Australian share markets should continue to represent wonderful choices for long-term investors (markets have rocketed up in recent years - exactly the opposite of what Dent forecast).


It's like the old story of crying wolf.

People don't take too kindly to being misled, and although memories can be short, they generally are not that short.

As king of the one-liner George W. Bush, once famously elucidated

"There's an old saying in Tennessee...I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee...that says, fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool can't get fooled again."