Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Sunday, 23 February 2014

Sydney Super Saturday - auction clearance rate 86% (lower north shore firing)

780 auctions this weekend in Sydney according to Australian Property Monitors.

There will be quibbles over the final auction clearance rate, but the preliminary clearance rate was one of the highest ever recorded at 86%.

There was a clearance rate of 87.6% last year, but that was from only a couple of hundred auctions at a quieter time of year.

As for the market cracking at the top end...not yet.

An apartment in Kirribilli sold for $4.235 million, $1.3 million above the "reserve" price (if, indeed, that reserve was fair dinkum).

It's a great spot down there. I had a look at an apartment there myself years ago - to rent I should add!

Postcard views: a buyer from Adelaide paid $4.325 million for a penthouse with this panorama, along with $690,000 for a one-bedder on the same floor.

Photo: Sydney Morning Herald

There have been a few high profile listings of late of premium properties, including at Bondi Beach and Bellevue Hill, which may well be commensurate with a premium sector of the market expected to rise to a crescendo later in the year.

Regular readers will recall that my previous market tip was the inner west of Sydney.

However, although the market in the inner west remains almost unbelievably heated, my favourite sector of the market for 2014 and beyond now also includes a few key suburbs on the lower north shore, in particular those with great transport links. 

At the end of the month, RP Data will record for the first time in more than half a year that median prices across Australia have slipped, but will continue to report gains in Sydney.

I don't tend to pay too much attention to monthly median prices, but this would be handy news for Australia's economy were the housing market to show something of a more sedate pattern in 2014.

I have to confess that I'm not a big believer in market forecasts due to the huge number of unknown variables, but while ANZ Bank tipped 8% price growth in 2014, our forecasts were lower than practically every other source, as referenced by Commonwealth Bank here.

Excessive price growth would likely represent a headache for the Reserve Bank, so a steadier market would be welcoming news for the Board.

APM writes its auction market report weekly here:

"The irrepressible Sydney home auction market sailed through its first big test of the year with an extraordinary 86 percent weekend clearance rate. 

This was the highest result for the year so far and was achieved despite the market hosting a super Saturday of 780 auctions. 

Sydney home buyers remain hungry for property with four consecutive weekends in February reporting auction clearance rates at or above 80 percent. 

These are unprecedented results for this time of the year. The average weekend clearance rate this month at 84 percent is just below the all-time monthly record of 84.8 percent recorded over September last year. 

And listings are at near record levels for this time of the year with Saturday’s offerings 280 higher or an increase of 55.5 percent over the 504 conducted over the same weekend last year. 

Prices growth can be expected to follow strong clearance rates with the median house price for properties sold at auction on Saturday at $1,100,000 up from last weekend’s median of $1,010,000.

Unsurprisingly, a number of Sydney’s suburban regions produced high clearance rates at the weekend. 

The best result was reported by the south with a remarkable rate of 91.9 percent closely followed by the inner west with 90.9 percent and the south west with 90.5 percent. 

Next best was the northern beaches with 85.4 percent, the lower north 85.3 percent and the upper north shore with a clearance rate of 84.1 percent."