Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Wednesday, 26 February 2014

Soft construction figures

Poor set of result reported today here by the ABS.

Given that residential construction is supposed to be picking up to fill the void left by the mining construction boom, a result of -1.7% seasonally adjusted for the quarter and -1.0% year-on-year, is decidedly poor.

Although dwelling approvals have picked up, little seems to have flowed through to construction figures as yet.

Hard to imagine any hike in interest rates until construction figures pick up.

To be fair, there does tend to be a lag between approvals and construction.

Also, of note, the engineering construction have not yet dropped off as feared, which buys the economy a little more time to rebalance.

Tomorrow's capital expenditure actual and expected figures will shed more light, in particular the Estimate 5 figures, which are expected to come in between $160 billion and $174 billion.

Towards the upper end of that range would be helpful.

Graph: Value of construction work done, Chain Volume Measures—Trend estimates

Source: ABS

The split between residential and non-residential building shows the soft response from resi construction to date and is as follows:

Graph: Value of building work done, Chain Volume Measures—Trend estimates

Source: ABS

Plenty more work for low interest rates to do yet.