Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Thursday, 27 February 2014

Interest rates to rise soon?

Nah.

A few weeks ago with housing approvals at historic highs, business confidence up, resources exports flying and retail sales coasting along at an annualised 6.5% pace, things were all starting to look almost rosy for the Aussie economy.

Inflation looked like it might be picking up, although the RBA appeared to think that this may pass.

And, as we know, house prices had a very strong 2013 in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

The pendulum has swung back a bit the other way, though.

The jobs data has since been crap, and the capital expenditure data today was...even more crap.

Some high profile job cuts are unlikely to help confidence.

Mining investment could drop by quarter or even a third next year, which leaves the rest of the economy quite a lot of heavy lifting to do to fill the gap in the intervening period before resources exports really get going.

Even in the best case scenario interest rates are stuck where they are for months.

If the economy doesn't start to pick up further, the next move could still be down. 

The economy is supposed to rebalancing, but it's been a it sluggish to date.

Futures markets are 95% certain that rates will be on hold at 2.50% next Tuesday, with a cheeky 5% chance of a cut priced into interbank cash rate futures. 


Source: ASX