Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Friday, 28 February 2014

Credit

Lots of gloom around at present, with Qantas shedding jobs, Virgin in the mire, the jobs market looking soft...and the capex data rather horrible!

On the plus side, some big earnings reports from the large companies.

Woolies (WOW) posted an underlying profit of $1.3 billion profit today for the first half, a solid increase of 6%.

To be blunt, job losses and struggles at Qantas and Virgin are very sad - I have mates at Qantas - but ultimately these are small companies in terms of the Aussie economy.

Earnings results from the big players have mostly been pretty good, and this is reflected in the share market being close to 6 year highs.



Source: ASX

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) today said that it expects the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates on hold for the whole of 2014.

The HIA also noted that new housing starts are forecast to break the 165,000 threshold for only the 2nd time in a decade, which means that residential construction will begin to play its part.

Credit

The Reserve Bank also released its financial aggregates data today.


Credit growth remains far from remarkable, and obviously it is still housing credit leading the way (+5.6% y/y/). 

On the plus side, all sectors are now confirmed as being in an upswing, so low interest rates are beginning to impact business and personal credit too.

Unsurprisingly, the net result is that house prices are rising everywhere.


Source: RP Data

However, as I'll get around to analysing, the February data will reveal prices as 'falling' in February in all cities except for Sydney (where preliminary auction clearance rates last week were almost as high as we've ever seen).

Monthly data is hardly reliable, but who knows, maybe things will start to cool across Australia as the year progresses. 

More to follow on this...