Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 31 January 2014

Sydney house prices to rise 20% in 2014?

Whether or not he is right this time, I note that Louis Christopher of SQM Research has a good track record of near-term house price forecasting in Australia, which included correctly calling falling dwelling prices in 2011. 

From Sydney Morning Herald's headlines today here:

"Experts are divided over the longevity of Sydney's property "boom" this year, with most not expecting a repeat of last year's 15 per cent median house price growth.

Yet one commentator, Louis Christopher of SQM Research, is sticking by his bold prediction that Sydney could record up to 20 per cent growth in 2014.
Australian Property Monitors data shows median house prices jumped $100,000 in 2013 – the strongest growth in a decade – to $763,169. Apartments rose 10.9 per cent to $541,992."
The article continues:
"But Mr Christopher expects bluer skies than last year's Sydney price growth. "Our forecast last September for 2014 was 15 to 20 per cent and we hold by that," he said.
"The market we're going into is the hottest we've seen."
"It's going to take some sort of trigger in the market to create a slowdown – for example a rise in interest rates, which we are not anticipating, or a sudden surge in new supply, or some sort of major global crisis."
Mr Christopher is even making brave predictions about the luxury property market, which hasn't recovered to previous highs. He believes Sydney properties priced between $2 million and $3 million are "just going to fly off the shelves; that's where we'll see some real strength in the market".