Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 22 January 2014

SQM newsletter snapshot

This is on the money as usual from SQM on Sydney's housing market.

I'm not sure where the idea of a 'slowing market' came from.

Try actually buying a property in the city and you will get a better idea - Sydney is a very a crowded market. 

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"We continue to remain bullish on the Sydney housing market. 

Don’t believe the hogwash that came out of another reporting body over the weekend. 

The market is not about to slow, its actually about to have the strongest start yet in over 15 years.

Let me tell you why we remain so bullish on Sydney:

1.       Stock on market in Sydney fell to the lowest levels recorded on our index in December. For the month, there were just 20,479 properties listed in Sydney. That was less than half the amount that’s listed in Melbourne and just 75% of what is listed in Brisbane.

2.       N.S.W Housing finance approvals, which are predominantly driven by Sydney kept rising through to the end of last year as measured by the ABS. They were up another 1.8% for the month of November and up 22% for the 12 months. Certainly no indicators there that Investors were slowing down.

3.       The outlook for interest rates has changed   The market is no longer factoring in possible interest rate rise for this year. Indeed, the probabilities of another rate cut have increased. This will help investor confidence immensely.

4.       The Australian dollar continues to slide. This will help the Sydney’s finance, manufacturing and exports sectors. Perhaps there is some evidence this maybe the case, with N.S.W now recording the second lowest unemployment rate across the country and some evidence that N.S.W businesses are becoming more confident." 

SQM then go on to summarise:

"Finally, whatever you may think of the Sydney market, whether it is overvalued or deeply overvalued, the point remains that the market is momentum driven. Just like with the listed shares or any other asset classes for that matter, property prices are never too high to go even higher, nor are they never too low to go even lower.

Bullish momentum is running with the Sydney housing market right now and there are no signs yet that the momentum is about to exhaust itself or get scared off."