Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 15 January 2014

Mining boom still refusing to budge...for now

Perhaps surprisingly, engineering construction value of work done rose again in the September 2013 quarter according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Graph: Value of work done, Chain volume measures

Source: ABS

A large 7.9% increase in private sector activity more than offset a fall in public sector construction activity, resulting in a strong 4.3% uplift for the quarter, seasonally adjusted.

Graph: Value of work done Volume terms Trend estimates

Source: ABS

While each mining capex survey brings news that the peak of the boom is all but upon us, the good news is that the lack of dramatic falls to date allow low interest rates further time to stimulate housing construction, jobs growth (hopefully) and retail sales growth in order to counter the eventual fall in mining construction activity.

Surveys for total expected capital expenditure through 2013-14 show that after a prolonged run-up, capex will eventually begin to fall, although the most recent surveys have brought relatively better news than had been feared.



Source: ABS

In the meantime, of course, resources export volumes are rising, placing a heavy reliance on favourable outcomes relating to ongoing high demand for ore from China, key commodity prices and the strength of the Australian currency. The next capex survey is due on 27 February and should bring a little more clarity to the overall outlook.

Export Volumes graph

Bulk Commodity Exports graph