Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Thursday, 23 January 2014

Inflation

Opinions were rather divided somewhat by yesterday's inflation data.

On the one hand there are those who say that inflation is taking off - and it was a pretty big headline number for the quarter at 0.8% (and 0.9% underlying). 

That's rapid on an annualised basis.


Source: ABS

On the other hand, others argue that the main contributors to the inflation figure, which, as you can see above, included food and tobacco, may only have spiked temporarily. 

Graph: Contribution to quarterly change

Source: ABS

After all, the employment data hasn't been great, and year-on-year, the favoured underlying measures are still in the target 2-3% range...at 2.6%. 

Consequently, opinions are also split on the direction of interest rates. 

Some forecasting houses are still expecting interest rate cuts later in 2014 as the Reserve Bank tries to lower the Aussie dollar towards 80 cents and get the labour market doing a little better. 

Others are a lot more hawkish.

And, as you might expect therefore, futures markets are hedging their bets and sit somewhere in the middle.