Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Sunday, 27 October 2013

Handy charts from RP Data show low interest rates are working

Since 2011, we've heard a lot of opinions which suggest that "low interest rates don't work any more" and such like. However, slowly but surely low interest rates are indeed starting to work as these three charts from RP Data show.

It's certainly been a slow burn but gradually dwellings are being approved and constructed, with total approvals now moving 1.9% above the 20 year average according to RP Data.

Low interest rates necessarily take time to work, and this is particularly the case when it comes to dwelling construction as new projects can take many years to make it through the approval and financing stages.


Source: RP Data

I've said to a few people of late that if anyone truly and honestly believes that dwelling construction is not happening in Sydney then they should pop around to my place for a cuppa on a Saturday morning and listen to the awesome racket going on outside.

A huge amount of building is underway around inner Sydney with many thousands of new apartments due to come online over the next five years, particularly around the CBD and the inner south (where an apartment boom sees some 25,000 units planned for the next five years).

I can see the upturn with my own eyes, but you can also see it in the NSW line on the chart below with the number of dwelling approvals increasing dramatically over the past four years.

Source: RP Data

Only Victoria has a chart which is moving in a downwards direction, but this is to be expected after a huge spike in approvals after the financial crisis 'emergency low' interest rates which led to something of an oversupply of certain types of stock on the market in that state.

The monthly figures are volatile but y/y the trend is clearly up, particularly in NSW (+22.6%), Queenesland (+12.2%) and Western Australia (+31.8%). In Victoria, approvals slipped by 3% while South Australia saw a moderate upturn (+9.6%).

Note that the new building in Australia will be heavily focussed upon units and medium-density dwellings as opposed to detached houses, with 41.6% of approvals for that type of property (2012: 33.2%).

This trend is to be expected with our denser cities today and demographic shift towards living close to the Central Business District in medium-density dwellings.

Household sizes are also smaller today than in decades past, and while there will remain a high demand for well-located detached housing, the higher cost of city land will ensure that most new builds in the future will be unit stock.


Source: RP Data

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be happy with the unfolding trends as mining construction capital expenditure looks set to drop off through 2014 and beyond.

The RBA hopes that the inevitable fall in mining capex will be offset by an increase in dwelling construction. The charts above show that we are slowly but surely moving in the right direction.

Fine trend analysis from RP Data.