Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Aussie property recovery running out of legs?

Shares sliding down a little further today ~0.25% - the so-called 'hostage crisis' in the US still has some way to run yet.

Knee-jerk reporting was always going to be an inevitable impact of more regular property data.

Note how quarterly price data now appears to be cooling, except in Sydney.

Mildly amusing that commentators are now sanctimoniously warning buyers about paying too much in Sydney and Melbourne (well, this is obviously true in any market) - never mind that in 2012 they were still continuing to advise investors to buy in Adelaide instead of Sydney.

All the while on this blog I posted my opinion that Sydney's inner/middle ring suburbs would smash records -and they will - Sydney median prices are already up by 13% in this cycle and are heading north by the day.

Adelaide dwelling price 'growth' is still in negative territory over the past year and comfortably below its previous peaks.

I'm not permanently down on Adelaide and despite its weak population growth I am prepared to change my view if the state unemployment rate falls well below 7%.

But not until there is clear evidence of sustained jobs growth in the state - currently jobs growth y/y is negative as compared to NSW where jobs growth has been very strong.

Low interest rates may gradually begin to see employment growth return but it has been a painfully slow 5 years for Adelaide.

Graph 3.20: Employment by State

How long before the mainstream media reporting shifts to: "It's a Sydney property boom only, folks"?

Two weeks, I reckon.

Source: RP Data