Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Wednesday, 25 September 2013

BBQ of the shorters

We've heard a lot over recent times about how the world is supposedly ending and therefore we should be shorting the equities markets (or worse, that we should be going 'long on fear' by buying gold at nearly US$2,000/oz, resulting in a terrible outcome).

Unfortunately, if you've been busy shorting the markets based around the supposed doom and gloom, the odds are that, on balance, you've gotten barbecued.

No-one contests that the world has faced challenges. 

The headlines will continue to lurch as they always do from debt ceiling crises, to Eurozone unemployment, to the Cyprus contagion, to Syria, to the coming 'Septaper', back to the debt ceiling to...well, whatever comes next.

US stocks have not only doubled since bottoming out in the first half of 2009, they are up by around 150% and have continued to pay healthy dividends.

Of course, every week people will wail "but stocks might fall?" - of course the market might correct at any's obvious that can happen anytime. 

But this kind of misses the point of investing in companies.

Shares in quality profitable, dividend-paying companies, unlike gold and silver, are an income asset. Your income stream should increase over time.

If your strategy involves the market moving in your favour over the matter of a few months you are basically guessing or gambling.

Skilful traders can finish ahead if they are disciplined with their use of stops (or options), but the more I see the more I realise that most people are hopeless at sticking to trading plans.

"But what if the market falls?" - well, the simplest answer is to have a strategy to continue to acquire more quality shares over time. And, when the market is cheap, you get more for your money.

You will do much better than buyers of gold or shorters over the long haul.

Source:  Bloomberg