Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Thursday, 12 September 2013

Unemployment ticks up to 5.8%

Well, it was spot on - the unemployment rate ticks up to 5.8%.

Graph: Unemployment Rate

Source: ABS

The number of employed persons flattened off, and is not growing fast enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising (given the strong population growth).

Graph: Employed Persons

The economy has now added only 108,000 jobs on a rolling 12 months basis, with Sydney (+62,000) and Victoria (+35,000) the states which have added almost all of the jobs.

South Australia has actually shed jobs and its unemployment rate remains worryingly high at 6.8% (although that is down from 7.1%), with only Hobart recording a higher rate at 8.3%.

No surprise that these are the two weakest housing markets given those numbers, and also no surprise that Sydney is the strongest.

Total employment fell by a seasonally adjusted 10,800 jobs.

All in all, not too exciting. 

Today's labour force report just re-iterates that interest rates will not be heading back up soon as is being widely suggested by housing market crashniks.

Instead futures markets actually consider it more likely than not that there will be another cut by November.

Both wrong for my money - we're staying on hold until 2014.

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A lot of excitement about Chris Joye's article on the housing market this week, although it's not unsurprising that he now takes the position that the major banks are over-leveraged with their large market share of mortgages - representatives of all the non-major lenders have always maintained as much.