Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Friday, 13 September 2013

Squid: Gold to $1,000?

Interesting call. The squid (GS) sees a risk of the gold price collapsing to $1,000/oz.

I'm not a fan of gold due to its lack of yield - why not invest in profit-making companies that pay franked dividends?

Always an inherent uncertainty around the price of gold, but the risk/reward balance looks poor to me.

Bloomberg again:


"Gold is poised to extend declines as the U.S. Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus and economic data improve, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which says that there’s a risk that bullion may drop below $1,000 an ounce. Futures retreated in New York.
While debt-ceiling discussions in the U.S. and the Syrian crisis may support bullion in the near term, gold will resume its decline into next year, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. The bank’s target for 2014 is $1,050, and the commodity may overshoot to the downside, Currie said in Singapore. Gold futures haven’t traded below $1,000 since October 2009.
Bullion has dropped 21 percent this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, the U.S. economy improved and stocks and the dollar rallied. The Fed will pare its $85 billion a month bond-buying program next week, according to a Bloomberg survey. Earlier this year, Currie issued a sell recommendation on bullion on April 10, before gold plunged 13 percent in a two-session slump that ended April 15.
“While we agree with the mid-cycle price somewhere around $1,200, we believe that at least near term it can overshoot to the downside, which is why we have $1,050” as a target, Currie said. “It clearly could trade below $1,000.”
The technicals look diabolical. 
Nobody can say they weren't warned about the risk of a dead cat bounce... 
Source: kitco