Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Tuesday, 17 September 2013

SQM: Sydney dwelling prices to rise 15-20% in 2014

Given that we've already seen price gains this year of more than 8%, it's a big call, and perhaps feels a little too bullish.

SQM notes that if a strong economic recovery is achieved then the gains will be in the 20-30% bracket, whereas if the terms of trade crash and the RBA is forced to cut rates by 100bps, the gains will be in the 12-15% range.

SQM have a decent track record, and they could very well be right.

They were pretty good on calling the moderate price falls in 2011 and then again with the subsequent bounce.

SQM sees prices receding in Canberra where the public sector jobs market will likely be trimmed and also softer markets in Hobart and Adelaide.

The Sydney market has a lot of momentum, so unless something comes along to stop it, strong price gains are likely to continue through until next year.

You can read the full article on Property Update here:

"The housing market recovery is set to accelerate in 2014 led by Sydney, which will record a housing boom, with prices in that city now expected to rise between 15-20%.

SQM Research predicts significant price rises for Sydney of between 15-20% with the weighted average capital city gain in 2013 to be between 7% – 11%.
The forecast takes into account an interest rate rise sometime between mid to late 2014. Low interest rates and an improvement in sentiment towards the national economy will further drive buyer interest in the national housing market.
Our recently released Housing Boom and Bust Report shows the housing recovery that commenced in the 3rd quarter of 2012 for most capital cities is now about to enter into a more accelerated phase from what has generally been modest price rises to date.
However, the results will be quite varying from city to city. Canberra for example, will record house prices falls of between 1-4%. Melbourne will record just modest to moderate price gains of 4-7%.
Indeed that is the range for the capital cities when you exclude Sydney.
Sydney though is turning into a beast unto itself. We have a strong conviction that the ABS will record 15-20% house price rises next year for that city. Such a rise will create a large dilemma for the RBA, especially if the national economy is still running below average growth."

Source: SQM Research