Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Sunday, 15 September 2013

Shane Oliver on the Aussie housing market

AMP's Chief Economist Shane Oliver speaks in this video on the housing market outlook in Australia.

You generally get a very level-headed point of view from Oliver on matters economics, so it's well worth a listen.

It's interesting to note here how Oliver stands directly opposed to much of the housing market commentary.

Think of some of the viewpoints which are aired regularly in the Aussie media:

-Interest rates don't impact house prices? 

"This current upswing is largely being driven by lower interest rates, which is often a key driver in the housing market".

-The Australian market is going to crash? 

"The upswing probably has a bit further to go.

"We haven't built enough houses. There is a limited supply out there."

-Interest are rates about to rise? 

"I don't see the Reserve raising interest rates any time soon."

"In a few years time, interest rates will probably start going up and prices may come off a little bit."

-A housing bubble? 

"Average house prices will probably rise 5% or 10% over the next year. I wouldn't call it a boom or a bubble."

-Negative gearing is to blame for high house prices? 

Oliver noted this week that he believes negative gearing is not to blame for increasing house prices in Australia. 

In the US, points out Oliver, interest repayments can be deducted on the family home, yet price-income multiples are lower than here (where most Australians are homeowners). 

Overall, Oliver's view is that prices will tick up a little over the coming year or two, but because nationally house prices are already relatively expensive in global terms, we won't see anything approaching the booming price growth seen in previous cycles.