Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email

Monday, 9 September 2013

Housing finance data points to strong dwelling price growth

Today's data from the ABS probably should put an end to any discussion of a floundering housing market.

Source: ABS

The monthly data showed finance for owner occupied housing increasing by a seasonally adjusted +2.4% in July.

Market analysts had expected an increase, but the gain easily surpassed expectations and the series now shows that financing has increased for seven consecutive months.

Finance for purchase of new dwellings jumped by a seasonally adjusted +5.9%.

Investor loans continued to fire up in value by another 3% in July.

There was even a marked 9% increase in first homebuyer commitments, albeit from a low base.

But it's the year-on-year data that really tells the picture.

The number of dwelling commitments has gone through the roof in 2013.

Graph: No. of dwelling commitments, Owner occupied housing

Source: ABS

And the below chart is the most telling, the value of commitments having rocketed since the middle part of 2012.

Graph: Value of dwelling commitments, Total dwellings

Source: ABS

It's great to see first homebuyer commitments increasing, but it should be noted that as a percentage of owner occupied housing finance the FHB share remained at around 15%.

It's also noteworthy, as previously noted here, that a huge amount of investor capital is flooding the markets and thus I'd expect that it's the property types favoured by investors which seem most likely to outperform.

The value of investor financing is up by an astonishing +26%y/y.

In Sydney, dwelling prices are reported as being +6.64% in the last three months alone signifying a likely boom. Prices in Sydney are breaking to all-time highs being up by more than 8% in the last year and well over 10% since the most recent trough.