Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Wednesday, 25 September 2013

Adelaide property boom powers on

We have the lowest interest rates in a generation and yet the Adelaide market is still failing to launch.

Source: RP Data

For what it's worth, my best guess is that there will now be the start of a modest upturn in the Adelaide.

If you were being optimistic, there might be median price gains in the 2-4% region in 2014, but what happens after that?

The economic recovery still looks to be a slow one, but cash rate futures markets imply that we might still see an interest rate rise by March 2015 - and rising rates could easily kill off any momentum before the market has even recovered its previous peaks.

Source: ASX

It could be the perfect bull trap in Adelaide, which I've consistently warned about forever and a day now.

On the other hand, as I've also long predicted, the Sydney market is heading through the roof.

SQM Research's base case is gains of 15-20% in 2014 or a staggering 20-30% if the economy recovers.

I'm not pegging myself to such a bullish prediction, but on the other hand I would not be at all surprised either if the base case proved to be on the money.

Cash flow investors will continue to point towards Adelaide. 

My position continue to be unequivocally that Sydney remains a far, far stronger market.