Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Friday, 9 August 2013

Will we finally have a recession for Australia?

We've been hearing a lot about a coming recession for Australia over the last few years. So, are we going to get one?

For those cheerleading for job losses, business failures and economic gloom: I'm afraid the RBA says not.

Instead the RBA expects growth to continue and then pick up through 2013, 2014 and 2015.

From the RBA's statement on Monetary Policy:


Source: RBA

Can the RBA's 'army of economists' be certain about this? No, of course not.

But what they can do is look at their last 20 years of forecasting errors and provide us with confidence intervals around forecasts.


Source: RBA

So what we have is a 70% confidence interval of GDP growth of between 2-4.5% through 2015.

Even the 90% confidence interval doesn't show a recession (while it also shows an outside chance of GDP growth spiralling off the chart).