Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Friday, 30 August 2013

Is China demand still slowing?

Nuh-uh. From Macquarie Bank:

"The August results of our proprietary steel sector survey (in which we interview 40 steel mills, 40 steel traders and 30 iron ore traders) show further improvement on the strength of July with many indicators reaching the highest levels in the two year history of the data. Mills are reporting very strong orders and a strong improvement in profitability."

Steel mills noting a "very strong recovery" in the month of August:

Source: Macquarie Bank

With plans to increase purchases of both iron ore and coking coal, Australia's main bulk commodities exported.

Source: Macquarie Bank

"The July results of Macquarie’s proprietary China steel sector survey point to a marked improvement in sentiment across the 40 steel mills, 30 steel traders and 30 iron ore traders interviewed. Orders have improved somewhat at the mills, profitability is rising (although most are still losing money) and the destocking of raw materials appears to finally have ended. However, traders report flat sales, and are only modestly optimistic about August volumes." 

China's GDP growth has been on a downward trajectory, though sources from within the country state that they remain confident of hitting its 7.5% growth target. Only time will tell on whether that is optimistic.

GDP Growth – China and India graph

Australia's bulk commodity exports over the past decade:

Bulk Commodity Exports graph

Given our ultra-heavy reliance on commodity exports, Australians should hope that the strong demand puts a floor under the iron ore price which typically experiences a seasonal dip through the coming months.