Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Monday, 19 August 2013

Interest rates bottoming out?

Well, the easing cycle has been running for quite some time now but the market is starting to imply that there won't be many more rate cuts to come.

Source: ASX

Futures markets have effectively discounted an interest rate cut in September pricing in a 9 in 10 chance of the official cash rate staying on hold at 2.50%.

That feels right. 

No doubt the preferred outcome for the Reserve Bank would be to wait and see how the economy responds over the next few months without need for further help from monetary policy.

Although futures markets suggest that record low interest rates will still be on the agenda for the next 12 months, the curve does begin to slope upwards thereafter.

Hopefully, this will prove to be the case as the Aussie economy steadily picks up against the likely backdrop of decreasing mining construction capital expenditure.

Other downside risks for the Aussie economy include a potentially slowing demand for commodities from China and a material fall in commodity prices.