Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Saturday, 17 August 2013

Homebuyers strike...goes on strike (Week 6)

When Shane Oliver of AMP discussed his views on the lack of a property bubble this week he talked about typical "cyclical highs" in auction clearance rates for cities such as Sydney as being around 70%.

Today's auction clearance rate in Sydney was 81.6% per Australian Property Monitors, a massive 23% higher than a year ago.

That is now the sixth consecutive weekend that the 80% barrier has been breached by initially reported clearance rates (they can be revised downwards on occasions, as was the case last week - to 79.2%) in Sydney suggesting that the established sector of that property market is very hot.

This is a disappointing result for the planned homebuyers strike which has been going on for some years now. 

The movement had hoped to bring about a market crash through boycotting the market (though whether someone who has never bought a property can be said to be 'going on strike' is a point of some confusion).

Properties in Sydney are selling very quickly, with stock remaining on the market only for short periods.

The clearance rate in Melbourne according to the REIV was also strong at 76% (with 396 properties selling) as compared to just 55% for this time last year, indicating that low interest rates have revived interest in the market quite substantially.

Shane Oliver sees property price gains of 5-10% for the year ahead, but the gains certainly won't be uniform. 

Sydney is the capital city market with the strongest fundamentals at present with supply remaining tight and jobs growth the strongest in the nation, while Perth has recorded strong gains of more than 10% over the past 12 months. 

However, several other city markets look to be substantially weaker and have demonstrated no price growth, which is consistent with Oliver's suggestion that prices in real terms are likely to be range-bound for the foreseeable future.