Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Thursday, 9 May 2013

Unemployment *falls* to 5.5%

More than 50,000 new jobs added in April and the unemployment rate 'falls' to 5.5%?! Crumbs.

Graph: Unemployment Rate

Source: ABS

Well, it's another stunning result, but I think we can probably file the April figures in the "too good to be true "basket (again) and expect that May's figures will be weaker (again)...

I explained why the figures are so volatile here.

What does this all mean? 

Well, firstly, it just confirms yet again that the ABS month-on-month figures are all over the shop.

It's much better off to look at the trend which is: over the past year unemployment is up, but not too sharply.

Of the 164,000 jobs added by the economy in the past year, more than 107,000 of them were in NSW.

What else? 

Well, that rampant Aussie dollar has soared back to 102.41 cents. The stock market clearly isn't that enthused by the news - it's absolutely dead flat, despite the Dow (DJIA) soaring to unprecedented highs at above 15,100 overnight.

And we can probably shelve any further interest rate cut next month absent any meltdowns in other data. Market prices in only a 21% chance of a cut, so likely to be on hold at 2.75% (39% before the release).

Caveat: if the Q1 capital expenditure report is very weak on 30 May then that could be a game-changer and rates could be lowered again. Remember, forecasts predict that total capital expenditure - and particularly mining capital expenditure (below) - will begin to fall in 2013/14.



Source: ABS