Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email

Wednesday, 29 May 2013

AUD stumbles to 95.62c

The positive economic data in the US has sent the Aussie dollar lower again, touching 95.6c this morning.

This is a "7 cent decline from its 2 year trading average of 103.5 cents" - a nice summary of the implications here by Christopher Joye at the AFR.

Don't forget, we have the capital expenditure data out tomorrow, and if that prints weak, the dollar (and interest rates) will be heading lower still.

Capex report cheat sheet for tomorrow

Here’s how Westpac see it, via three scenarios:

1 - Positive

Scenario 1, 2013/14: – a positive result
Est 2 of $157bn.
Implies $173bn, +5.5% on 2012/13

Mining, +2%; manufacturing, –3%; services, +12%.

2 - Soft

Scenario 2, 2013/14: – a soft result
Est 2 of $151bn.
Implies $166bn, +1%

Mining, flat; manufacturing, –3%; services, +3%.

3 - Weak

Scenario 3, 2013/14: a weak result
Est 2 of $145bn.
Implies $159bn, –3%

Mining, –3%; manufacturing, –3%; services, –3%.