Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Monday, 14 January 2013

TD-MI inflation still relatively benign - still "room" for another rate cut

The ABS releases its (more important) inflation data on the 23rd of January, but the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute data was released this morning and it showed a benign result with its headline annual inflation figure ticking down to 2.4%.

The figure for the month was up a little but the annual figures are of more interest.

The TD-MI gauge also prints other "core" measures of inflation including a trimmed mean which printed at just 2.2% and another core reading which excludes fruit & veg and fuel which also dropped from 2.6% to just 2.2%.

Given that the Reserve Bank has a target range of inflation of 2-3% this suggests that there is "room" for another cut in the cash rate to just 2.75% should it deemed required.

However, at this juncture, the markets think that the RBA will be more inclined to wait rather than cutting again so soon.

Indeed, with iron ore prices back up to where they are, another cut at this time seems very unlikely in the absence of a significant retracement in coming weeks.

The really important inflation figures are released by the ABS in 9 days time.