Real-time thoughts & analysis of the markets, economy & more...
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents.
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Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
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Monday, 14 January 2013
TD-MI inflation still relatively benign - still "room" for another rate cut
The ABS releases its (more important) inflation data on the 23rd of January, but the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute data was released this morning and it showed a benign result with its headline annual inflation figure ticking down to 2.4%.
The figure for the month was up a little but the annual figures are of more interest.
The TD-MI gauge also prints other "core" measures of inflation including a trimmed mean which printed at just 2.2% and another core reading which excludes fruit & veg and fuel which also dropped from 2.6% to just 2.2%.
Given that the Reserve Bank has a target range of inflation of 2-3% this suggests that there is "room" for another cut in the cash rate to just 2.75% should it deemed required.
However, at this juncture, the markets think that the RBA will be more inclined to wait rather than cutting again so soon.
Indeed, with iron ore prices back up to where they are, another cut at this time seems very unlikely in the absence of a significant retracement in coming weeks.
The really important inflation figures are released by the ABS in 9 days time.