Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
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Thursday, 24 January 2013
Is the cost of living soaring or not?
Firstly, an interesting series here looking at the implied odds of an interest rate cut through the most recent 9 trading days:
Note how the futures markets priced in a jump in the implied percentage likelihood of a cut (up to 39%) yesterday following the soft inflation (CPI) data.
I must admit, if I was a gambling man I would take on those odds and have a punt of rates on hold at 3.00%. Strangely I do get requests from gambling websites to advertise on this blog but I don't think the "fit" would be right, somehow...
Anyway, I believe we would need to see some adverse news in the next 12 days to see another cut so soon.
While on the subject of CPI and inflation, take a look at this from Peter Martin. Note how inflation is sitting in the targeted 2-3% range and compare this to how Channel 10 reports the soaring cost of living.
Interesting economic journalist Peter Martin, and an outstanding one.