Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Monday, 14 January 2013

Data flows in...

I do focus too much on shares and property too much and sometimes need to spend more time looking at personal finances. Some interesting data sets today.

I've talked often about a number of trends in the past.

Firstly, in the face of a spate of articles talking about a new "era of thrift", I rather believe that a number of developed countries are in fact more likely to see an era of widescale credit card abuse.

Of course, this trend is much based upon human nature and therefore no-one can really know, but I was interested to note the spike to record levels of credit card use in October held up at $21.8 billion in November. The era of thrift I'm afraid I just don't believe in.

Secondly, I've been suggesting for a long time that petrol prices are a soft target in Australia in these environmentally conscious times. Unfortunately I expect to see them taxed to high heaven over the next decade or two. Governments are ever wary of taxing petrol too highly as it causes great angst, yet over the years I saw it in Britain - fuel, alcohol and tobacco getting hammered for year after year.

SMH reported today that petrol prices showed their biggest weekly jump in 7 years, increasing by 10 cents in Sydney and 6.3 cents on average nationwide.

Thirdly and finally - job ads fell for a 10th straight month, which is not a good trend.

This underscores the dilemma for the Reserve Bank with its interest rate decisions - headline figures often tell a reasonable story but the problem we have in Australia is that while mining investment and now iron ore prices are cruising along, confidence in so many other sectors is low.

For these reasons the futures markets hang in the balance, a February rate cut priced in as a 34% possibility.

Stock market remains happy enough, the All Ords ticking up by 0.25%.