Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Friday, 11 January 2013

2013 Australian property market forecasts

Predictions from various sources in this article on Property Observer here:

It's not surprising that these forecasters are, on the whole, bullish. But it is interesting to note the varying confidence between the cities.

Sydney and Melbourne are at different stages of their respective and therefore Sydney is likely to fare relatively better than the Victorian capital over coming times. Sydney's price growth has under-shot household income growth since its last major bull market through to 2004, whereas Melbourne saw far superior growth in the period through to 2010.

All forecasters agree that Brisbane is about to turn the corner after a slump in prices and a very slow half decade for the city. When solid growth does finally return the city could be a stand-out.

The mining boom and a major jump in immigration and strong wages growth make Perth the favoured capital city location for many with growth of 5-10% predicted. 

Very low vacancy rates in Darwin lead the forecasters to believe that the 'trend is their friend', and predict further strong growth. Although I have lived in Darwin, I still wouldn't be comfortable buying there myself after the boom over the past decade. When I visit I can clearly see that supply is tight, but in truth I just don't understand the market well enough.

Interesting to note that the normally bullish APM forecasts price growth of 0% for Adelaide. Property expert Margaret Lomas has again tipped Adelaide as her selection in 2012. Lomas also tipped Adelaide in 2011 but prices never really got going and the median price slipped, but the significantly lower interest rates this time around might see activity begin to increase.

The lack of population growth in Hobart is likely to see prices fairly flat in the Tasmanian capital. The prospects for Canberra are forecast to be similarly muted.

So, it should be an interesting year ahead. There are whispers that prices have started January 2013 strongly, but realistically property is a long-term investment and a couple of weeks of data a realistic timescale for assessment does not make.

Will keep you posted...