Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

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Thursday, 22 November 2012

Some idle speculation on interest rates

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures December 2012 contract is now trading at 96.885 which indicates a 62% expectation of a rate decrease to 3.00% at the next RBA Board meeting.

You'll remember that last month I felt that the Reserve Bank would most likely leave interest rates on hold (even though the markets were pricing in an ≈80% chance of a cut at one stage) as it was afforded the 'luxury' of waiting until December for a better feel for the outlook. Quite right too in my view given that rates are at near-emergency lows.

Pure idle speculation of course but there might be a better chance of a cut in two week's time as the Board doesn't meet again until February 5.

I must admit, I don't understand why in this day and age the Board couldn't call a January meeting if it felt so inclined - it's not as if they'd have to send out a flock of carrier pigeons from Martin Place to summons a meeting after all.

This week is a quiet week but there's a fair amount of economic data to come betwixt now and December 4 for the Board to chew over in any case.