Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email

Thursday, 29 November 2012

Game on for December interest rate cut

An amendment to my ballpark estimate of an increase  to a 2 in 3 chance of rates being cut on December 4. Make that an increase to almost a 3 in 4 chance with futures markets immediately jumping up to a 74% priced in.

The rationale is that while mining capex is roaring on, capex in other sectors is not picking up to fill the gap which will be left after the mining boom peaks.

A half-century-low cash rate of just 3.00% from next week would of course be wonderful news for those punting on real estate growth through 2013-14. Concerning, however, if you are relying on fixed interest products generating a return.

The odds...

The ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures December 2012 contract is now trading as high as 96.910, which in turn suggests a 74% expectation of a rate decrease to 3.00% at the next RBA Board meeting.


As for the odds of interest rates being moved significantly upwards any time soon? They are zero.