Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Friday, 16 November 2012

Extraordinary series of charts...

Strong GDP growth of Australia:



Unemployment in Australia - just 5.4%:

Graph: Unemployment Rate

As I've noted before, we won't see unemployment run an awful lot lower than this for a number of reasons (frictional/seasonal/structural...and some people who just don't want to work!).

And yet, check this out! Interest rates appear likely to recede to record lows over the next 11 months.



Explanations?

-The Reserve Bank is pre-empting stalling growth

-Mining-led construction could peak in 2014 (according to my buddies at Deloitte)

It is hoped that housing construction and investment could fill some of the hole left by declining mining capex investment over the coming decade, as naturally many of the constructed resources projects are due to move into their production phase.

Australia will certainly need to build some residential dwellings as evidenced by the worrying vacancy rates data released today.

On a headline level, dwelling approvals might appear to be in some way reasonable. But with population growing at the fair old lick of around 300,000 people per annum, the great challenge will be whether appropriate dwellings can be built in the right areas.

If the challenge is not met then the clear outcome will be...outrageously expensive housing in the capital cities.