Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 15 August 2012

Wages firing up, surprisingly so

Huh, shows what I know!

I was fairly convinced that wages growth would be pretty ordinary today, and yet the ABS tells us that growth was a very healthy 3.7% for the past 12 months year-on-year.

Now admittedly, my world view for the past few months has been regrettably Sydney-centric in its formation - on a good day I might make it down to the far end of Pitt St Mall, and rare is the occasion that I venture into postcodes numbering higher than '2000' - but my good old friend the apocryphal evidence (i.e. chatting to mates on the phone and at the AFL) suggested that wages growth would be much weaker than this.

What do I read into the numbers? Well, it's mining driving the growth, right?

The graph below backs me up on this view as it is the resources-rich state of Western Australia that is absolutely roaring ahead with respect to private sector wages prices growth at 5% per annum.

Come to think of it, those I know who have seen little or no pay rises work in the industrials, and those who are making a motza work in mining.

So it does make sense overall, in a two-speed kind of way.

Graph: WPI—Annual change: original, Total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses—States/Territories, by sector, Jun Qtr 2012