Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email email@example.com
Thursday, 21 June 2012
Preliminary Census Data from the ABS
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release its Census Data at 11.30am today, which will be of particular interest to property investors.
The preliminary data released shows that the ABS will report a steady increase of Australia’s population but to a lower absolute figure than their mid-2011 estimate.
Of course, the journos will have a field day with this – “300,000 people go missing!” - but in reality an error rate of around 1.25% is not particularly surprising.
As I’ve discussed in these parts before, the ABS is fighting a very tough battle to collate real-time information on a timely and accurate basis.
Moreover, the estimate made in 2011 was based upon projections and we must expect some margin for error:
Population estimates for Australia and the states and territories are updated by adding to the estimated population at the beginning of each period the components of natural increase (births minus deaths, on a usual residence basis) and net overseas migration.
The counts are devilishly difficult to complete accurately, in part due to the transient nature of some of the population, the large number of Aussies who may be overseas at any given point in time and, partcularly, the difficulty of measuring net overseas migration.
The big ‘winner’ is expected to be Western Australia which will show a sharp increase in its population.
Again it’s a case of looking beyond the headlines, particular if you are analysing statistics from a property investment angle.
For all the talk of “people going missing” and “vanishing Aussies”, a more considered look at the figures tells us that since the last full Census in 2006, the respective populations of Victoria and NSW both increased by approximately 400,000 people, which represents a very solid rate of growth.
Hopefully, the stats will also help to stick a sock in the mouths of the (far too many) Aussies who drone on about us being overrun by boat people.
From a purely numerical perspective, if we are talking about a population that increases at around 300,000 people per in a year, the illegal immigrant factor is a highly immaterial element (*please insert sock*).
You may have noticed that I have recently begun to ‘tag’ posts to my blog which, theoretically at least, helps search engines such as Google to direct relevant traffic to my blog page.
My blog’s daily stats do tell me which search terms have been used by new visitors to the site.
Over the past month, three of the search terms that directed traffic to me where: “Anyone? Anyone? The Laffer Curve?” (did I really write that? Apparently so...), “Singapore’s coolest building” (I definitely did write about that) and “best rat race movies” (erm, OK...).
So I think you’ll agree that the tagging experiment is a roaring success so far...