Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email email@example.com
Saturday, 23 June 2012
The great Aussie housing shortage a myth?
Interesting article from Leith van Onselen here in the Sydney Morning Herald noting how the housing shortage is a myth based upon revised figures from the Census.
Leith raises some good points though I would raise a few counter-points:
Macro vs Micro
Firstly, a serious property investor, while doubtless interested in these macro trends at an Australia-wide level, is not particularly interested in what is happening 20km south-west of woop-woop.
If you are following the property market on a day-to-day basis, you will be keen to identify areas and supply-constrained suburbs where rents are rising and vacancy rates are low.
As I noted in my the approvals for new dwellings are lower than the growth in the population. So regardless of the present situation, demand is going to out-strip supply going forward.
Despite all the smoke-and-mirrors raised by journalists regarding the Census, the fact is that between 2006 and 2011 the respective populations of NSW and Victoria increased by around 400,000 people.
Invest where the jobs are
Ultimately, people want to live near the business centres where there are jobs. This is true for new immigrants and Aussie who already reside here.
As Andrew Wilson pointed out in his SMH article last week, new housing approvals located more than 50km from the centre of Sydney are not a great solution to the housing issue (and that's why I favour investment in units in the inner/middle ring suburbs).
Worryingly, for the housing bears, despite all the talk of a huge price correction, dwelling values have simply refused to fall very far (and in some cases, have not fallen at all).
Early indications from RP Data suggest that the twin interest rate cuts in May and June may even have seen prices rising again in June and seem likely to pick up through 2013.
The US stock market shrugged off worries of bank downgrades to finish the week on a high, with the Dow up 0.5%.
A glorious sunny Saturday in Sydney.
Only 6 weeks until City-2-Surf so about to get out and power-walk around the Opera House and Botanical Gardens (I haven't graduated as far as running very much yet). Sponsor me here if you can spare $5 for OzHarvest...every little helps!
Busy afternoon, as I'm going to the rugby international this at the Sydney footie stadium, Australia vs Wales. Go Wallabies!