Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Tuesday, 19 June 2012

Deloitte highlights two-speed/patchwork economy

More great stuff from the lads at Deloitte Access Economics.

Have come to expect nothing less from them.

Note the final point on 2011 Census population figures to be released soon by the ABS - will be very interesting reading, particularly for property investors, I expect (I was on a roadside campground in the Northern Territory so will be recorded on the 2011 Census as an itinerant!).

  • Despite ongoing pessimism surrounding the state of the economy, Australian economic data has been healthy of late. The latest National Accounts data showed an impressive 1.3% GDP growth in the March quarter, and total growth of 4.3% over the year
  • In addition, and despite the reporting of some high profile job shedding, the number of people with jobs in Australia has started to rise again
  • Employment grew by 1.0% in the year to May, with 111,000 new jobs created. That rate of growth is still well below longer term trends, but it has been enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at around 5%. Most of that jobs growth has also been a 2012 story. Over the past six months, the Australian economy has put on 87,000 new jobs, almost all of which are full time
  • Over the past year mining is clearly the standout, with mining employment up 26.8%, easily the fastest rate of growth in any industry, adding 58,000 new jobs
  • [patchiness] is evident in employment too. Construction, transport and warehousing, retail, and manufacturing have all been big losers, with cumulative job losses of 136,000 jobs over the same period
  • There are also...different stories across the States. Western Australia has recorded the strongest employment growth over the past year, up 4.0%. Some 27,000 new mining jobs account for over half of the State's employment growth. Above trend growth was supported by the health and social assistance, professional services and manufacturing industries
  • Overall, while high profile corporate cutbacks are still in the headlines, recent labour force data has shown that a modest jobs recovery has commenced.

Macro movements
  • Spanish banks received a €100 billion bank bailout this week, while Spanish bond yields passed 7% for the first time and Moody's cut their sovereign debt rating to Baa3. That puts them only one cut above junk, and on negative watch.

The week ahead
  • The Greek election was held on the weekend, with a victory being claimed for New Democracy and thus for Greece remaining within the Eurozone. What remains to be seen is how hard the new government pushes for a relaxation of their bailout terms – and what that does for the bailout's credibility
  • Early responses in global markets have been positive, and the Australian dollar is up in Monday morning trade
  • Domestically, the ABS will be releasing the first waves of data from the 2011 Census. Importantly, that provides important detail on population numbers and characteristics