Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Sunday, 25 March 2012

Sydney Super Saturday

The biggest auction weekend of the year so far in Sydney, this weekend.

Auction clearance rates nudged over 60% for the first time in a long while, with over 300 properties going to auction.

I'm sometimes asked why I care about auction rates - simple reason is that they are a good leading indicator of the direction of values.

Just as with share markets, the direction of market sentiment is vital. The great hedge fund managers like A.W. Jones worked this out some decades ago - increasing values, increased sentiment, a positive feedback loop.

And with (some) US commentators predicting a 60% drop in Sydney prices (I strongly disagree, by the way, with the massive population growth we have in Sydney) I do like to keep a close eye on developments.

Next big news is the CPI result (inflation) for the next quarter. A low reading would see the RBA cut interest rates again.

Amusingly, Solomon Lew suggested that the RBA have totally mismanaged the mining boom and should cut rates by 50-75 basis points in April.

That won't happen, but it is amusing as Lew used to be a board member for the RBA for some 5 years.  Of course, he has his own vested interests now as a company Chairman.

The interest rate direction is crucial as the overwhelming majority of mortgages in Oz are on variable rather than fixed rates, though there has been some move towards fixed rates.

With vacancy rates in inner/middle Sydney below 1%, I'm not seeing nay 60% property crash just yet anyway.

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Just in Kuala Lumpur today, posting this from the awesome Petronas Towers.  Predictably very humid here.

Going on to Penang tomorrow and then Phuket, before Sri Lanka and India.  Busy schedule!

Was particularly amused to discover that Graham Taylor has been on board the QE for the last couple of weeks, before he alighted at Singapore. He hasn't changed.

I'll try to ping up a couple of pics in a day or two.