Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email pete@allenwargent.com

Thursday, 2 February 2012

AUD pumped up again on economic growth hopes

AUD now buying $1.07415 US cents today.

OK, I've heard the arguments for not cutting interest rates next week.

The last two inflation readings have been 0.4% and 0.6%.  This might be the start of an uptrend, I get that.

So what if the next reading is 0.8%?  By my calculations, even that would mean we are sitting very pretty with a reasonable annualised inflation rate, the target rate being 2-3%.

Meanwhile the Aussie dollar is costing our exporters dear. 

So it might be a case of cutting rates in February and then waiting to see what happens for the next CPI print...

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Best value stocks right now

Best value Aussie stocks at the moment in these uncertain climes - no question at all in my mind - it's the major miners BHP and Rio Tinto, as highlighted by the SMH here today.

Single digit Price-Earnings ratios to invest in these behomoths, with commodity prices steadily sneaking upwards, very appealing.

While the short-term outlook is as ever uncertain, investing in these companies for the long term entails only a low risk.  They have untapped resources that the smaller miners can only dream of.  This allows them to rationally allocate their seemingly limitless capital through the good times and the bad.

BHP is a little more diversified and in that regard is a less volatile prospect.  Rio is more focussed, so the opposite applies.

Spent a couple of weeks up in the Pilbara and Port Hedland a few months back and the sheer scale of these operations is totally mind-blowing.  I am, by my own admission a total mining and resources nerd, but I could sit and watch those monumental 80-carriage iron ore trains being loaded up all day (actually, I know I could, because I have).

Rio Tinto's Dampier Salt Joint Venture was pretty darned fascinating too.

BHP is expanding its Port Hedland output to 240 million tonnes of iron ore through the new shipping berths.

It's absolutely mind-blowing what that little corner of the country means to Australia.  And they gave us that Red Dog movie too, which history may prove to be of lesser significance...

Disclosure: I hold shares in BHP.

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Only in Tasmania for another 3 days before heading back to the mainland.  Looking forward to being able to feel my fingers again. 

Off to a wind farm in the West Coast wilderness today and to check out the chairlift at 'The Nut'.  This may prove to be a mistake from a temperature perspective.  If any of my extremities freeze off, I'll dictate a blog post tomorrow. 

Note to self: bring gloves to Tassie next time.

Have been noting with interest the news stories on Julia Gillard's supposed slipping grasp on power...