Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Predictonomics 202

Most overused phrase by economists in 2012 so far: “Cautious optimism.”
Even the McDaddy of Australian economists, Shane Oliver of AMP, was heard to say the magic words, that they were “cautiously optimistic”.
It’s a nothing phrase.  Let me translate: “We think the stock market is heading up.  But it might go down too and we want to be able to say we got it right.”
Here are some other great prediction ruses.
2 – Make lots of predictions.  Some of them must be right!
3 – The Wide Spread: “We think the property market will go up by between 2% and 13% this year.  The funny thing about this is that they still manage to get it wrong so often!
4 – Change your predictions retrospectively.  Amazingly, this happens too – just tell people you predicted the economic outcome correctly, they won’t remember what you said, right?
5 – Cover all bases.  Here’s a classic: “I think interest rates are heading up…but I actually hope they go down.”
6 – Write long rambling predictions and then highlight one paragraph after the event…
You’ll see all of these and more in 2012…
Went to the Beaconsfield mine museum today and it was splendid.  Respect to those guys who survived the terrible mine collapse (and the rescuers) in 2006, it must have been truly awful.
Going to check out the Boag’s brewery tour tomorrow in warm Launceston.