Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property advisory & buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place) - clients include hedge funds, resi funds, & private investors.

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Invest in Sydney/Brisbane property markets, or for media/public speaking requests, email

Wednesday, 11 January 2012

The 'January effect'?

Is this the start of a stock market revival or just the hallowed January effect?
The January effect (ring any bells? Cf. the Santa Claus Rally?) is a recognised phenomenon whereby securities tend to appreciate in the first month of the new year.
The effect was noted as long ago as 1925, and tends to be at its most prominent smack bang in the middle of January (i.e. now!).
Note, however, that historically the January effect seems to affect the small cap and mid cap stocks far more than the efficiently-priced large caps.
The January effect was said to be caused by income-tax sensitive individuals offloading before Xmas and buying again in January.
Of course, that might be true in the USA, but not in UK or Down Under in Oz where the tax years run to 5 April and 30 June respectively (though what happens in the US can be followed overseas, almost religiously sometimes).
Interestingly for the Aussie market, the ASX seems to have a lot more ‘room’ to move upwards than other global markets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average in the US is all the way up to 12,463, which isn’t getting a million miles away from its almighty peak of over 14,000 in the heady days of October 2007.
In Australia, on the other hand, stocks are still relatively cheap, with single PE ratios abounding and the XJO a world away from its peak of nearly SEVEN THOUSAND, now only at 4,218 as I write this...
It’s freezing in Melbourne. C’est tout.